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Пример эссе раздела Argument-Analysis
Citing a general demographic trend and certain evidence about two other hair salons, the manager of UpperCuts (UC) concludes here that UC should relocate from suburban to downtown Apton. However, the manager's argument relies on a series of unproven assumptions and is therefore unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the argument assumes that Apton's demographic trend reflects the national trend. Yet, the mere fact that one hair salon has moved downtown hardly suffices to infer any such trend in Apton; Hair-Dooz might owe its success at its new location to factors unrelated to Apton's demographics. Without better evidence of a demo­graphic shift toward downtown Apton, it is just as likely that there is no such trend in Apton. For that matter, the trend might be in the opposite di­rection, in which event the manager's recommen­dation would amount to especially poor advice.


Even if Apton's demographics do reflect the na­tional trend, it is unfair to assume that UC will become more profitable simply by relocating downtown. It is entirely possible that the types of people who prefer living in downtown areas tend not to patronize upscale salons. It is also possible that Hair-Dooz will continue to impede UC's prof­itability downtown, just as it might have at the mall. Moreover, UCs sagging profits might have resulted from mismanagement or other problems unrelated to location. Without ruling out these and other reasons why UC might not benefit from the demographic trend, the manager cannot convince me that UC would increase its profits by moving downtown.

Nor can the manager justify the recommended course of action on the basis of the Brainard salon's success. Perhaps hair salons generally fare better in downtown Brainard than downtown Apton, due to demographic differences between the two areas. Or perhaps the Brainard salon owes its success not to its location but rather to savvy market­ing or especially talented stylists. Or perhaps the salon thrives only because it is long-established in downtown Brainard—an advantage that UC clearly would not have in its new location. In short, the manager cannot defend the recommended course of action on the basis of what might be a false analogy between two hair salons.

In sum, the argument is dubious at best. To strengthen it the manager should provide better evidence of a demographic shift in Apton toward the downtown area, and clear evidence that those demographics portend success there for an upscale hair salon. To better evaluate the argument I would need to know why Hair-Dooz relocated, what fac­tors have contributed to the Brainard salon's suc­cess, and what factors other than location might have contributed to UC's sagging profits at the mall.

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